Hamas is reestablishing its control over Gaza by deploying police forces, recruiting new fighters, and rebuilding governance structures, according to analysts monitoring the region. This development comes as the intensifying war involving Iran has shifted regional and international attention away from Gaza, allowing Hamas to strengthen its position.
Hamas Expands Police Presence and Public Control
Michael Milshtein, a senior analyst at the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, noted that over the past two and a half weeks, Hamas has visibly expanded its influence in Gaza beyond military reconstruction. Milshtein cited reports of new recruits, police deployments, and public events such as parades taking place in central Gaza. He added that Hamas is actively enhancing its administrative control by improving taxation systems, monitoring markets, and overseeing religious institutions and education during Ramadan.
Postwar Planning in Gaza Stalled by Iran Conflict
Mukhaimer Abu Saada, a political analyst from Gaza, stated that momentum toward postwar stabilization in Gaza has stalled since the Iran war escalated. He referenced initiatives underway before the conflict, including discussions about an international stabilization force and political arrangements, that have now been delayed or deprioritized. According to Abu Saada, Hamas exploits the reduced pressure to solidify its grip, as international focus shifts away.
International Force Viewed by Hamas as Protective, Not Disarming
Both analysts highlighted ongoing talks about deploying an international stabilization force to Gaza under proposals linked to the Trump peace plan. However, Hamas reportedly welcomes such deployments when led by countries like Indonesia, viewing them as a buffer against Israeli military actions rather than a threat aimed at disarmament. Milshtein compared Hamas’s expectations to the Hezbollah-UNIFIL presence in Lebanon, emphasizing Hamas’s stance that the force would protect it from Israeli operations and would not pursue weapon confiscation or tunnel searches.
Future developments depend heavily on the outcome of the Iran conflict. Abu Saada suggested that if the Iranian regime remains stable, Hamas would interpret that as moral support to maintain and possibly expand its current position in Gaza.
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