Reform UK continues to lead in the latest YouGov/Sky News/The Times voting intention poll after Nigel Farage’s party publicly challenged YouGov’s polling methodology. The poll, conducted on March 15-16 with 2,329 respondents, shows Reform UK at 25%, a 2-point increase from previous results.
YouGov Poll Results and Methodology
The poll presented the following voting intentions: Reform UK 25%, Green Party 19%, Conservatives 17%, Labour 17%, and Liberal Democrats 14%. This is the first poll since YouGov agreed to provide more detailed underlying data after Reform UK disputed the approach YouGov uses for capturing voting intentions.
YouGov employs a methodology that asks two voting intention questions: one general and one focused on how respondents would vote in their specific constituency. These responses are then processed through a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) model to generate headline figures. This method aims to reflect tactical voting behaviors more accurately.
Reform UK’s Challenge and YouGov’s Response
Reform UK contests the use of the second, constituency-specific question and the MRP model, arguing the initial general voting intention question better represents public sentiment. The party cites former YouGov employee Peter Kellner, who suggested that the constituency-focused question may systematically favor the Liberal Democrats over Reform UK.
Following this challenge, YouGov has committed to publishing raw voting intention data without the constituency prompt alongside the processed results. According to these raw figures, Reform UK holds 19% support, matching the party’s figures on both question types this week, while other parties show different numbers without the constituency context.
YouGov maintains its methodology and defends its results, referencing its accuracy at the last general election where its final MRP poll correctly predicted Reform UK’s 15% vote share and accurately called 92% of constituencies.
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