Angela Rayner, the former Labour deputy leader, is preparing to return to frontline politics ahead of the crucial May elections, with her allies confident that an ongoing tax investigation into her affairs will conclude before then. This development comes amid growing concerns within the party about its electoral prospects and leadership direction.
Tax Probe Nearing Resolution
Rayner resigned from her deputy leadership role in September after it was revealed she had underpaid stamp duty by £40,000 on her second home in Hove. Although she initially believed her payment was correct based on legal advice and the arrangement of her family home into a trust, a subsequent investigation determined additional tax was owed since the property was classified as a second home.
Since then, Rayner has been working with HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) through legal channels to resolve the dispute. She has also engaged in public speaking and is writing an autobiography to generate funds to cover the owed tax and potential fines. Sources indicate she is expected to earn over £100,000, sufficient to settle the payment.
Political Positioning Amid Party Uncertainty
Rayner has recently reemerged as a vocal figure within Labour, urging MPs to uphold party values and criticizing divisive immigration proposals. Speaking to the centre-left campaign group Mainstream, she warned that Labour “cannot just go through the motions” following recent by-election setbacks and emphasized the need for bold change to represent working people.
Her increasing visibility has fueled speculation about her future leadership ambitions. While Rayner’s allies maintain she would not proactively seek to unseat Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, they suggest she might consider standing if a leadership contest arises following a poor May election outcome. One ally noted that up to 81 Labour MPs could potentially call for Starmer’s resignation if results are disastrous.
Reassuring Investors and Party Members
Rayner has also engaged with City investors, reportedly assuring them that Labour would not shift leftward and would adhere to existing fiscal policies outlined in the party manifesto. This stance aligns with Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules and aims to calm market concerns about potential policy changes under a different leadership.
Senior figures within Labour remain divided on whether Starmer will withstand potential electoral setbacks, with some predicting his survival due to a lack of an attractive alternative, while others anticipate possible challenges prompted by disappointing results in May. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has publicly called for Starmer’s resignation but is the only senior figure to do so.
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