The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has become the dominant force within Iran’s fractured political and military leadership, according to analysts amid ongoing U.S. claims of talks with a top Iranian official. President Donald Trump has stated the U.S. is engaging with “the right people” seeking a deal, while Tehran publicly denies such negotiations are underway.
IRGC’s Ascendancy in Iran’s Political System
Multiple intelligence assessments and recent reports confirm the IRGC’s increasing control over Iran’s state apparatus. Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, described the current crisis as accelerating a longstanding trend of IRGC dominance. He noted that despite this growing control, the Iranian state remains weaker and more narrowly focused on national security than ever before.
According to Ben Taleblu, Washington’s priority should be achieving a military victory that translates into political leverage, rather than attempting negotiations with the IRGC. He emphasized support for internal Iranian opposition forces as a more effective strategy.
Role of the Supreme National Security Council
The Supreme National Security Council functions as the primary decision-making body coordinating Iran’s military and foreign policies, heavily influenced by the IRGC. Established after the 1979 revolution, it integrates senior IRGC commanders and government officials under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s authority.
Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a former IRGC commander, currently serves as the council’s secretary, further consolidating the IRGC’s control over Iran’s top security decisions. A Middle Eastern official described the council as operating with “the backing of the majority of IRGC commanders.”
Uncertain Authority of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei
Despite holding the title of Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei’s actual grip on power appears uncertain. He has not made public appearances since succeeding his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after the latter’s death in U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February. Reports suggest that Mojtaba Khamenei’s health and control over governance remain unclear, adding to Tehran’s internal instability.
As Iran’s leadership landscape shifts, whether those currently negotiating with the U.S. possess authority to finalize agreements remains a key question.
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