China’s recently unveiled 15th Five-Year Plan reveals that the country will continue permitting and building new coal-fired power plants, undermining its previous commitments to control coal use and reduce carbon emissions. Despite being the world’s largest installer of renewable energy, China remains heavily dependent on coal, the largest source of its greenhouse gas emissions, raising concerns about the feasibility of meeting its climate pledges.
Coal Expansion Contradicts Climate Promises
In 2021, President Xi Jinping promised to “strictly control” coal-fired power generation until 2025 and then gradually phase it out. Additionally, China pledged to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030. However, analysis of the new five-year plan, launched during the National People’s Congress in March, shows no clear commitment to halting coal expansion.
Despite coal’s share in China’s primary energy falling from 69 percent in 2015 to 56 percent in 2024, overall coal consumption has increased due to rising electricity demand. In 2024, China began construction on 94.5 gigawatts of new coal-fired power capacity—accounting for roughly 93 percent of all global new coal plant construction—and commissioned over 50 large coal plants.
Permitting for new coal plants reached a decade high in 2023 at 112.8 gigawatts. Analysts warn that this surge threatens China’s climate targets and risks producing “stranded assets” since many plants are in provinces with sufficient electricity capacity.
Renewable Energy Growth Has Not Curbed Coal Reliance
China remains the largest global installer of solar and wind power, adding a record 300 gigawatts of solar and 100 gigawatts of wind capacity in 2025. This expansion has helped meet growing electricity demand predominantly through clean energy. Nevertheless, the continuous reliance on coal has prevented a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
A key reason for coal’s persistence is China’s focus on energy security. Coal is the one major fossil fuel China does not need to import, offering a stable and domestically abundant supply. Given geopolitical tensions affecting oil and gas imports, coal remains a vital fallback for reliable energy provision.
Energy Intensity Targets and Systemic Challenges
China’s energy intensity—energy consumption per unit of GDP—has improved steadily since the first target in 2006. However, from 2019 to 2024, China missed its 17 percent energy intensity improvement goal, achieving only 12.4 percent. This shortfall, combined with GDP growth, suggests carbon emissions rose by approximately 13 percent during this period, putting the country’s 2030 carbon intensity reduction pledge at risk.
Provincial governments prioritizing local economic growth and employment in coal-producing regions, along with technical challenges in integrating renewable energy into the grid, have slowed the transition away from coal. Grid operators often prioritize coal-fired power plants due to legacy contracts, leading to curtailment of wind and solar electricity during periods of high renewable output.
Why it matters
China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, responsible for nearly 30 percent of global CO2 emissions. Its ability to peak emissions by 2030 as promised in the Paris Agreement is essential to global climate efforts. The continued approval and construction of coal plants jeopardize these targets and risk locking in decades of high emissions through new power assets that may never be economically viable to retire early.
China’s approach will also influence global energy markets and climate policies, given its pivotal role in renewable technology manufacturing and energy demand growth.
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