Senior advisers to President Donald Trump have privately voiced concerns about the impact of rising gas prices and economic unease on the Republican Party’s prospects in the 2026 midterm elections. Internal and public polling show growing dissatisfaction among independent voters, who form a crucial swing bloc, according to multiple sources briefed on discussions at the White House.
Key aides, including Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair, regularly update Trump on voter sentiment trends. They highlighted that the administration’s tariffs and recent U.S. military actions against Iran have contributed to global economic uncertainty, culminating in a spike in gasoline prices.
On March 31, 2026, U.S. average gas prices reached over $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, according to AAA. This increase has fueled economic anxiety, particularly among independents, whose approval rating for Trump stands at 31% with 69% disapproving, per CBS News polling.
Several White House officials acknowledge that without reversing the current trends, Republicans face likely losses in the House, although they still expect to maintain control of the Senate. A Republican source described the House as particularly challenging for the GOP this cycle.
In response, Wiles has pressed administration departments for initiatives aimed at reducing consumer costs since the start of Trump’s second term. The White House emphasizes that these are short-term disruptions linked to “Operation Epic Fury,” the ongoing military campaign in Iran, which they claim will ultimately lead to lower gas prices.
“When Operation Epic Fury is complete, gas prices will plummet back to the multi-year lows American drivers enjoyed before these short-term disruptions,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on March 31.
White House spokesman Kush Desai highlighted the president’s economic agenda centered on tax cuts, deregulation, and energy production as part of efforts to restore prosperity. He also cited multiple executive orders targeting housing affordability and other initiatives aimed at easing financial pressures on Americans, including tax breaks on tips and overtime.
However, public sentiment remains cautious. Sixty-seven percent of Americans say they are unwilling to pay more at the pump during the Iran conflict, and one-third now fear a recession within the next year, according to recent CBS News polling. Overall, Trump’s approval rating remains steady in the low 40s, with a 60% disapproval rate, reflecting persistent divisions among voters.
Why it matters
The rising cost of gas amid geopolitical tensions directly influences voter attitudes toward the economy, a key issue that historically shapes midterm election outcomes. The Republican Party’s ability to manage these economic challenges will be critical in maintaining its congressional majorities, especially in competitive districts held by independents.
Background
The surge in gas prices follows increased tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and heightened military engagement with Iran, both of which contribute to global market volatility. Since taking office for a second term, the administration has repeatedly signaled that short-term economic disruptions are a trade-off for long-term economic goals, including energy independence and deregulation reforms aimed at strengthening the working class.
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