A recent analysis by Lloyd’s List Intelligence shows that since March 1, 71% of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have direct links to Iran, including ownership, origin, or affiliation with Iranian oil shipping operations. This figure comes amid heightened tensions following joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and shortly after former President Donald Trump claimed Tehran had allowed certain oil tankers passage as a “present.”
Maritime data indicate that many ships passing through the strategic waterway are either owned by Iran, traveling to or from Iranian ports, or part of a shadow fleet believed to support Iranian oil exports. This shadow fleet accounted for 88% of transits over the past week, a rise from 83% the previous week. Despite some vessels complying with international sanctions, they still maintain connections to Iran.
Tracking information from the Joint Maritime Information Center, which coordinates monitoring among 47 nations including the U.S., recorded just 11 oil tanker transits through the strait in the last week. Chinese ships represented only 10% of total transits despite perceived warming ties between Tehran and Beijing during the conflict. Notably, two large container ships owned by China’s largest shipping company, COSCO, were able to pass the strait after initially being turned back by Iranian forces.
Lloyd’s analysts highlight Iran’s strategic use of Larak Island, located centrally in the Strait of Hormuz, as a checkpoint—or “toll booth”—where it collects fees from passing vessels. This control underlines Tehran’s ability to regulate maritime traffic through one of the world’s crucial oil transit chokepoints.
Contrary to Trump’s assertion and Pakistan’s announcement of a bilateral agreement permitting limited passage of Pakistan-flagged oil tankers, data show no increase in vessels flagged by Pakistan navigating the strait. Iran has maintained that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed exclusively to vessels linked to the U.S. and Israel.
Why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most vital oil transit routes, with a significant portion of global petroleum passing through it daily. Iran’s dominant presence among ships navigating the strait highlights its continuing influence and control amid conflict, impacting global energy markets and international maritime security. Monitoring these developments is crucial for understanding the dynamics of the ongoing U.S.-Iran confrontation and the regional stability of the Persian Gulf.
Background
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, serves as a critical chokepoint for international energy supplies, particularly oil. Over the past decades, tensions between Iran and countries such as the U.S. and Israel have periodically threatened freedom of navigation in this region. Recent U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran have further complicated maritime security, with Iran asserting control over traffic and restricting vessels associated with its adversaries.
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