U.S. gasoline prices are expected to remain elevated for months, even if a peace agreement ends the conflict with Iran and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, energy experts told CBS News.
What happened
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime channel connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, normally facilitates about 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Energy analysts say that reopening this waterway would initially lower crude oil prices, but it will take months to years for the oil supply chain to stabilize and gasoline prices to fall significantly.
As of June 2, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline was $4.29, down from over $4.50 in May but still well above the pre-conflict price of $2.98 recorded before U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February.
Patrick De Haan, petroleum expert at GasBuddy, explained that even if tanker traffic through the Strait resumes quickly, the process of ramping up oil production, transporting crude, and refining it into gasoline will be gradual. Jennifer Li, senior geopolitical analyst at Rystad Energy, added that refining operations and tanker flows will take time to return to normal.
Richard Joswick of S&P Global Energy emphasized that global oil inventories remain low, a factor that will keep gasoline prices high despite any immediate drop in crude prices. The Energy Information Administration attributes about 57% of the retail gasoline cost to crude oil prices, with the remainder from refining, taxes, and distribution.
Why it matters
Persistent high fuel costs have broader economic consequences, contributing to inflationary pressures in the U.S. Consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.8% in April, the highest since May 2023, in part driven by energy price increases linked to the Middle East conflict. Brown University research estimates that U.S. households have spent approximately $401 more on gasoline and diesel since the war began.
Because fuel prices affect transportation, goods costs, and consumer spending, sustained elevated gas prices could influence economic growth and household budgets well into 2027.
Background
The Iran conflict escalated in late February 2026 with attacks by U.S. and Israeli forces, disrupting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and triggering a surge in global energy prices. The strait is one of the world’s most strategic chokepoints for energy exports, making its operational status crucial for global oil supply stability.
Supplies from Gulf oil producers have declined since the conflict began, causing tight inventories worldwide. Restoring production capacity and supply routes involves logistical complexities, leading experts to forecast a protracted period before gasoline prices return to levels seen before the hostilities.
Sources
This article is based on reporting and publicly available information from the following source:
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