Latino voters are moving away from former President Donald Trump, but Democrats are not solidly winning their support, according to a new poll by UnidosUS, the largest Latino civil rights organization, conducted ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
What happened
The UnidosUS survey, conducted between April 27 and May 14 among 3,000 registered Latino voters nationwide and across 32 competitive congressional districts, found 54% of Latino voters intend to support Democratic House candidates in November, while 27% favor Republicans, and 19% remain undecided. This 54% share mirrors the Democratic Latino House vote in 2024 but represents a decline from previous election cycles, where Democrats captured 60% to 69% of Latino votes. The poll’s margin of error is 1.8%.
Trump’s Latino support has diminished since 2024. Although he captured 48% of Latino voters that year—a 12-point increase from 2020—one in four Latino Trump supporters now say they would not vote for him again, up from 9% in April 2025. Meanwhile, 67% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance nationwide, including 51% in his home state of Florida. Key concerns affecting opinions on Trump include inflation and cost of living (44%), immigration enforcement policies (33%), jobs and wages (26%), and foreign policy issues like the war with Iran (25%).
Regarding voter enthusiasm, 76% of Latino respondents say they are “100% certain” or “almost certain” to vote in the November midterms, a turnout level comparable to the record Latino participation in 2018. However, enthusiasm among Latino Democrats is notably lower, with only 31% motivated to vote to support their own candidates, compared to 52% of Latino Republicans driven by candidate support.
Economic concerns dominate Latino priorities for Congress, with 60% citing cost of living and inflation, 40% highlighting the economy and jobs, 37% mentioning healthcare, and 27% focusing on housing. Immigration ranks fifth at 21%, with most Latino voters, including a majority of Republicans, supporting legal status for undocumented immigrants residing long-term in the U.S., even when framed as “amnesty.” Over 70% oppose increased funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) without restrictions, and 44% fear immigration enforcement impacts even lawful residents.
Texas stands out as a key battleground state for Latino voters. In the U.S. Senate race, 51% of Texas Latinos favor Democrat James Talarico or lean toward him, while 24% support Republican Ken Paxton, with 18% undecided. The state’s Latino electorate has gradually shifted toward Republicans in recent years, particularly along the border, making the outcome critical for both parties’ control ambitions.
Why it matters
Latino voters are an increasingly decisive constituency in key battleground states and districts. Their shifting political preferences could determine control of the U.S. House and Senate in the 2026 midterms. The decline in enthusiasm among Latino Democrats and the erosion of Trump’s Latino backing highlight uncertainty for both parties as they seek to mobilize this crucial electorate. Economic issues, immigration policy, and candidate appeal will influence turnout and preferences, potentially reshaping electoral outcomes in states like Texas, Arizona, and Florida.
Background
Latinos have helped shape recent election results, notably boosting Trump’s 2024 performance in crucial swing states. However, Democratic gains among Latinos have waned compared to previous midterms and presidential elections. UnidosUS regularly tracks Latino voter attitudes, revealing growing discontent with both parties’ leadership amid economic struggles, immigration concerns, and policy dissatisfaction. Republicans have worked to expand their Latino coalitions by focusing on economic opportunity and public safety, while Democrats face challenges renewing Latino voter enthusiasm after a series of unmet expectations and Republican-led immigration enforcement efforts.
Sources
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