As the 2026 hurricane season begins, meteorologists warn that a developing El Niño climate pattern will significantly shape storm activity across the Pacific and Atlantic basins. This phenomenon, marked by warming Pacific Ocean waters, is likely to fuel an above-average hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific while suppressing tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic.
El Niño’s Effects on Hurricane Formation
El Niño raises sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, providing more energy for tropical storms and hurricanes to form and strengthen. Additionally, it reduces vertical wind shear—the change in wind direction and speed at different atmospheric levels—which helps storms maintain their structure instead of dissipating. These conditions create an environment conducive to the development and persistence of hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific.
Conversely, El Niño tends to increase wind shear over the Atlantic and lower sea surface temperatures there, producing less favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development. Although hurricanes can still form in the Atlantic during El Niño years, statistical trends indicate a below-average hurricane season in that basin.
Recent Patterns and Their Implications
The most recent El Niño occurred in 2023, after which the climate shifted into a La Niña pattern linked to recent above-average Atlantic hurricane seasons. In 2023, the Eastern Pacific experienced 20 tropical systems, including Hurricane Hilary, which caused three deaths and over $900 million in damages across Baja California, California, Arizona, and Nevada.
Last year, under La Niña conditions, 18 tropical systems formed in the Eastern Pacific. The standout storm was Hurricane Kiko, which threatened Hawaii before dissipating north of the islands in cooler waters.
Looking Ahead to the 2026 Season
With El Niño emerging again, the National Hurricane Center has activated preparations for monitoring storm development in the Eastern Pacific, where the first named storm of the season will be Amanda, followed by Boris, Cristina, and Douglas according to the six-year rotating list. The Atlantic is expected to see fewer storms, but vigilance remains essential given the unpredictability of tropical cyclone activity.
The official Eastern Pacific hurricane season began May 15, with continuous updates from the National Hurricane Center tracking potential system developments throughout the season.
Why it matters
Understanding the influence of El Niño helps communities and authorities better prepare for regional hurricane threats. Enhanced activity in the Eastern Pacific may increase risk to Mexico and parts of the southwestern United States, as seen with recent storms like Hilary. Meanwhile, below-average Atlantic activity could reduce hurricane impacts along the U.S. East Coast and Caribbean, but does not eliminate the potential for destructive storms. Early awareness and preparation based on these climate signals are critical for disaster readiness and response planning.
Background
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a periodic fluctuation of ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions that influences global weather patterns. El Niño events generally suppress Atlantic hurricane seasons while intensifying Eastern Pacific activity, whereas La Niña supports more active Atlantic seasons. Monitoring ENSO conditions remains central to seasonal hurricane forecasting by meteorological agencies.
Sources
This article is based on reporting and publicly available information from the following source:
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